Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 17.660828 20.557878 23.729052 27.450957 31.692261 36.367386 41.903305
2024-10-27 12.034659 15.748891 20.247896 26.065746 33.353280 42.140281 53.493666
2024-11-03 9.973069 14.288431 19.936639 27.792558 38.344490 51.922915 70.594767
2024-11-10 8.780254 13.556405 20.216757 30.041319 43.991152 62.883014 90.148433
2024-11-17 7.354073 12.160251 19.260084 30.301039 46.770682 70.098904 105.213888
2024-11-24 6.102293 10.757479 18.011457 29.851846 48.322096 75.560258 118.126515
2024-12-01 5.030538 9.426621 16.632183 28.939899 48.953464 79.583110 129.116348
2024-12-08 4.327881 8.578187 15.873905 28.857998 50.772305 85.435684 143.212603
2024-12-15 3.797185 7.934532 15.349493 29.057793 53.000093 92.028872 158.890821
2024-12-22 3.086666 6.826787 13.846012 27.356615 51.817829 92.964989 165.489942
2024-12-29 2.833612 6.566461 13.840633 28.306751 55.266352 101.768379 185.604852
2025-01-05 2.668946 6.457534 14.100177 29.759216 59.717947 112.576609 209.827570
2025-01-12 2.274158 5.814268 13.276469 29.151851 60.539434 117.502925 224.976069
2025-01-19 1.859801 5.049585 12.100926 27.720393 59.702385 119.502312 235.353393
2025-01-26 1.769858 5.029758 12.499208 29.552291 65.389790 133.891224 269.206289
2025-02-02 1.723713 5.108636 13.123185 31.930206 72.393773 151.285441 309.864395
2025-02-09 1.539045 4.793326 12.801272 32.204921 75.106624 160.687595 336.194788
2025-02-16 1.335337 4.381378 12.184473 31.730357 76.177529 166.943192 356.925649
2025-02-23 1.135937 3.934126 11.405413 30.766674 76.068105 170.793736 373.181608
2025-03-02 1.006037 3.660447 11.018994 30.680120 77.872277 178.651721 397.931422
2025-03-09 0.904977 3.451852 10.768762 30.891269 80.362050 188.107053 426.550926
2025-03-16 0.741631 2.999642 9.778654 29.093161 77.983256 187.032662 433.350880
2025-03-23 0.695727 2.933276 9.862107 30.097505 82.367365 200.893164 472.415887